International stories rise and fall so quickly in today’s media. On Monday, it’s civil conflict in Ukraine. On Tuesday, it’s the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS). By Wednesday, the headlines are on to something else. Amid the global whiplash, it’s easy to lose sight of the larger picture. So as the new year begins, it’s useful to take a broader look at where these stories are headed—and to track the next wave of market-moving surprises in international politics.
Every January Eurasia Group, the political risk consultancy I founded and oversee today, publishes Top Risks, a roundup of the geopolitical trends we consider most likely to change our world in the coming year. This ranking reflects our forecast of which global storylines are most likely to play out over the next 12 months, which will have biggest impact on the markets and politics—and where we can expect surprises.
I – Word Understanding
civil conflict – a violent fighting within a country organized by a group wanting to change government policies
whiplash – harm or damage
geopolitical – influence of geography and economics on politics and international relations
II – Have Your Say
Let’s share what you know about the top geopolitical risks around the world:
1. The politics of Europe
3. The effects of China slowdown
4. ISIS, beyond Syria and Iraq
5. Saudi Arabia vs Iran
6. Taiwan / China